Set Over Set

https://nmth.nl/6dbiqel1u8 A recent tournament found me on the short end of an all-in hand.  Someone said, “Tough to lose set over set.”  To be precise, it was set over trips.  There is a big difference, but over the years the terms set and trips have become interchangeable (incorrectly).   A set is when a pair in the hole matches a card on the board.  Trips are when a card in the hole matches two cards on the board. Sets win money and trips usually not as much. Think about it; sets are hidden and have huge implied odds. When the board flops a pair, every player’s radar starts flashing “trips, trips…trips!”   Not being stealth-like, usually makes trips less profitable than sets.

https://www.larochellevb.com/2024/01/31/y94ukpd6 Let’s take a look at the numbers for sets and trips on the flop.  First, the odds of having any pocket pair is about 6%.  That puts the odds of flopping a set at approximately 10%.   The probability of the board showing a pair on the flop is about 15%. The odds of flopping trips are less than 5%.  That doesn’t mean flopping trips isn’t a good thing.  Just be careful, a set might be lurking in the high weeds.  Note: there is less than a 1% chance of loosing set over set.